Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
