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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

However the latest field is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still